VMware has done the right thing by taking care of their enterprise customers and making sure that they know that they can purchase vSphere 5 licenses under the terms of their existing ELA’s. The vast majority of smaller customers who run a small number of purchased applications are unlikely to be impacted by the new vRAM licensing, as their is probably plenty of vRAM headroom to take care of their needs. The issue is with customers who are not quite large enough to have an ELA, and who have sophisticated mixes of purchased and internally developed applications – and who are trying to push the density envelope in order to maximize their return from their investment in VMware. This customers are going to have to look at the new licensing in the above terms and make their own decisions.
The single most dangerous part of this new pricing (to VMware) is rooted in the following fact. What is left to virtualize is very different from what has been virtualized to date. If what VMware has done is change its licensing around to replace one metric (cores) with another (vRAM) in a manner that would have allowed it to get the same revenue from its existing customers to date, then VMware has totally missed the boat.