2013 Virtualization and Cloud Computing Predictions

Herewith we fearlessly predict some important events and trends for the virtualization and cloud computing industry. May we also wish everyone had a Happy Holiday Season and a prosperous 2013.

2013 Virtualization and Cloud Computing Predictions

2013 Virtualization and Cloud Computing Predictions: Bernd Harzog
Bernd Harzog
  1. At VMworld 2013 VMware will announce and release its first full implementation of its Software Defined Data Center, comprised of the existing vSphere product line, the software defined networking functionality from Nicira, and the software defined storage functionality from its internal software development projects.
  2. Cisco will be the second vendor to announce a Software Defined Data Center
  3. VMware will execute a pivot, ceasing to be reliant upon the virtualization platform (vSphere) as its principal source of revenue, and will become a vendor where a significant portion of the revenue comes from management software like the vCenter Operations, vCloud Automation Center, and vFabric Application Director components of the vCloud Suite.
  4. VMware’s success as a management software vendor will put serious pressure on the incumbent enterprise management software vendors like IBM, BMC, CA and HP – who will finally realize that they are losing their installed based to a new set of vendors focusing upon the virtualization platform as the new enterprise data center.
  5. Microsoft will be recognized as having attained functional parity with VMware at the virtualization platform level. Most enterprises will adopt a multi-hypervisor strategy designed primarily to use Microsoft as a lever to reduce licensing costs for vSphere.
  6. The conflicting management software strategies of VMware, Cisco, and EMC will create serious problems for VCE, which will be unable to put forth a coherent plan for management software that is agreed upon by its constituent vendors.
  7. The private cloud management vendors will shift their focus from providing primarily infrastructure-as-a-service clouds (IaaS) to adding application platforms-as-a-service (PaaS) and complete applications as a service (something that still needs an acceptable acronym).
  8. VMware will make serious progress virtualizing business-critical applications.
  9. VMware’s progress virtualizing business-critical applications will drive the demand for Operations Management solutions, Infrastructure Performance Management solutions, and Application Performance Management solutions focused on the VMware platform.
  10. Amazon, Microsoft, and Google will come to be seen as the leaders and drivers of the public cloud infrastructure -as-a-service business.
  11. Public cloud vendors with offerings based upon vCloud (VMware’s stack) will struggle to compete with Amazon, Google, and Microsoft on both a price and functionality basis.
  12. Public cloud vendors with offerings based upon OpenStack will struggle to compete with Amazon, Google, and Microsoft on a functionality basis as motivated vendors will continue to out maneuver a dis-organized community.
2013 Virtualization and Cloud Computing Predictions: Edward Haletky
Edward L. Haletky
aka Texiwill
  1. Bernd’s #11 is what we have now; however, vCloud will continue to be seen as more enterprise-ready for Tier 1 applications than Amazon, which will be plagued by continued outages.
  2. Security will become baked into SDDC, using such things as vCNS (if using vCloud, and other techniques if using other cloud frameworks).
  3. Openstack will include a firewall, network access controls, and other network security mechanisms as a part of Quantum or a plugin to it.
  4. VMware will allow other (third-party) edge firewalls within vCloud
  5. Security Policy will move not only with VMs but also with backups as they cross cloud boundaries. We will finally have a usable common object format for cloud-to-cloud migration.
  6. Data Protection will include all elements to reproduce the workload within any cloud including such things as networking, security, and management requirements.
  7. There will still be a huge issue with data migration between disparate clouds based on hypervisor version and lack of virtual machine ‘standards’, propagating vendor lock-in
  8. Costs to secure clouds will not go down but increase, which will make it cost-ineffective; in effect, economies of scale that benefit clouds will not apply to security, compliance, and governance measures.
  9. Cloud providers will continue to be opaque with respect to governance and compliance and will struggle to expose very little about their internal security measures.
  10. There will be a major, well-publicized cloud breach which will cause significant damage, eroding confidence in clouds in general, but will force compliance regulation to become more draconian within the United States.
2013 Virtualization and Cloud Computing Predictions: Mike Norman
Mike Norman
  1. Microsoft will open-source its entire .NET stack and development tooling in order to allow a level playing field for other PaaS providers. This will remove any anti-trust concerns as it starts to aggressively target a mixture of .NET and non- .NET applications on its Azure platform.
  2. OpenShift will become the dominant Open Source PaaS as VMware continues to fail to execute Cloud Foundry.
  3. The Cloud Foundry Ecosystem will fragment and dissipate.
  4. In general on Bernd’s points 10 and 11, Amazon will continue to maintain market dominance through a combination of  features and more aggressive pricing.
  5. On Bernd’s point 11: he may be right, or it may be that Google (having had no traction against Amazon) changes horses mid-year and embraces OpenStack.
  6. Someone will buy Canonical (Ubuntu).
  7. Amazon will stop pretending the Kindle strategy ever had anything to do with e-books, and start explicitly leveraging the link between Kindle and AWS.
2013 Virtualization and Cloud Computing Predictions: Andrew Wood
Andrew Wood
  1. Citrix’s Netscaler business will exceed XenApp/XenDesktop  as the primary business generator – the Cisco/Citrix partnership will prove interesting.
  2. Windows-based tablet devices will trundle in anticipation of Windows Blue release, but Windows Blue won’t help consumers. However, large-scale corporate will see a Windows hybrid device/tablet as an easier offering than allowing BYO iPads/Android.
  3. Apple and Google will jointly target more mid-large sized corporations; Microsoft will re-evaluate its VDI license policy.
  4. DaaS services will take a shift in market focus: less on desktop provision, more on the data, applications, and devices. It will be less about your desktop and more about your applications and data.
  5. The Citrix Avalon release will drop back to accommodate Zenprise integration changes with Cloudgateway …but Citrix’s solution will come out before anything from VMware
  6. Citrix Storefront’s functionality stack will make Excalibur’s extraction from the stone more sticky.
  7. Atlantis Computing will be bought by someone other than Citrix/VMware – I’m going for Dell.
  8. One of the UEM/User virtualisation vendors will be bought/subsumed by a bigger player.
  9. Dell will realize what they’ve got with Quest vWorkspace and cool their partnership with Citrix to further exploit their Wyse acquisition.
  10. Dell won’t realize what they’ve got with Quest’s vWorkspace, and it’ll be sold to VMware as they look to counter DaaS provision of session desktops. Yes, this contradicts 9. No one said spread betting wasn’t allowed.
  11. No one talks about feature comparisons with hypervisors.
  12. 2013 won’t be the year for VDI.
2013 Virtualization and Cloud Computing Predictions: Joe Jessen
Joe Jessen


  1. Although I agree with Andrew on the prediction of Citrix’s NetScaler business, I disagree with the prediction that they will hold back the release of Avalon. They need to have an operations management framework to compete with VMware in the hybrid cloud management space. Historically speaking, it takes Citrix a few development cycles to integrate a new acquisition.
  2. Dell is like Baskin & Robbins and will have 31 flavors of virtual desktops to sell to its customers. Here is one for Dell’s marketing team – Have it Your Way…Dell Does It!
  3. Dell is becoming a software company, so although it would make sense for them to sell off vWorkspace to VMware (who should have bought it in the first place), I don’t think it is going anywhere and will be just another option on the menu.
  4. HP will need a coup d’état of the board to get them back on track, otherwise I agree with some others that they won’t be around in 12 months. Could be a play for Ballmer & company to own the entire stack and have a more even play against Oracle.
  5. A major data breach in a MDM solution will drive the major players to push more sandboxing solutions for BYOD offerings.
  6. Has there ever really been a year for VDI, I mean, really?

There you have it, our 2013 Virtualization and Cloud Computing Predictions.

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