Herewith we fearlessly predict some important events and trends for the virtualization and cloud computing industry. May we also wish everyone had a Happy Holiday Season and a prosperous 2013.
2013 Virtualization and Cloud Computing Predictions
- At VMworld 2013 VMware will announce and release its first full implementation of its Software Defined Data Center, comprised of the existing vSphere product line, the software defined networking functionality from Nicira, and the software defined storage functionality from its internal software development projects.
- Cisco will be the second vendor to announce a Software Defined Data Center
- VMware will execute a pivot, ceasing to be reliant upon the virtualization platform (vSphere) as its principal source of revenue, and will become a vendor where a significant portion of the revenue comes from management software like the vCenter Operations, vCloud Automation Center, and vFabric Application Director components of the vCloud Suite.
- VMware’s success as a management software vendor will put serious pressure on the incumbent enterprise management software vendors like IBM, BMC, CA and HP – who will finally realize that they are losing their installed based to a new set of vendors focusing upon the virtualization platform as the new enterprise data center.
- Microsoft will be recognized as having attained functional parity with VMware at the virtualization platform level. Most enterprises will adopt a multi-hypervisor strategy designed primarily to use Microsoft as a lever to reduce licensing costs for vSphere.
- The conflicting management software strategies of VMware, Cisco, and EMC will create serious problems for VCE, which will be unable to put forth a coherent plan for management software that is agreed upon by its constituent vendors.
- The private cloud management vendors will shift their focus from providing primarily infrastructure-as-a-service clouds (IaaS) to adding application platforms-as-a-service (PaaS) and complete applications as a service (something that still needs an acceptable acronym).
- VMware will make serious progress virtualizing business-critical applications.
- VMware’s progress virtualizing business-critical applications will drive the demand for Operations Management solutions, Infrastructure Performance Management solutions, and Application Performance Management solutions focused on the VMware platform.
- Amazon, Microsoft, and Google will come to be seen as the leaders and drivers of the public cloud infrastructure -as-a-service business.
- Public cloud vendors with offerings based upon vCloud (VMware’s stack) will struggle to compete with Amazon, Google, and Microsoft on both a price and functionality basis.
- Public cloud vendors with offerings based upon OpenStack will struggle to compete with Amazon, Google, and Microsoft on a functionality basis as motivated vendors will continue to out maneuver a dis-organized community.
- Microsoft will open-source its entire .NET stack and development tooling in order to allow a level playing field for other PaaS providers. This will remove any anti-trust concerns as it starts to aggressively target a mixture of .NET and non- .NET applications on its Azure platform.
- OpenShift will become the dominant Open Source PaaS as VMware continues to fail to execute Cloud Foundry.
- The Cloud Foundry Ecosystem will fragment and dissipate.
- In general on Bernd’s points 10 and 11, Amazon will continue to maintain market dominance through a combination of features and more aggressive pricing.
- On Bernd’s point 11: he may be right, or it may be that Google (having had no traction against Amazon) changes horses mid-year and embraces OpenStack.
- Someone will buy Canonical (Ubuntu).
- Amazon will stop pretending the Kindle strategy ever had anything to do with e-books, and start explicitly leveraging the link between Kindle and AWS.
- Although I agree with Andrew on the prediction of Citrix’s NetScaler business, I disagree with the prediction that they will hold back the release of Avalon. They need to have an operations management framework to compete with VMware in the hybrid cloud management space. Historically speaking, it takes Citrix a few development cycles to integrate a new acquisition.
- Dell is like Baskin & Robbins and will have 31 flavors of virtual desktops to sell to its customers. Here is one for Dell’s marketing team – Have it Your Way…Dell Does It!
- Dell is becoming a software company, so although it would make sense for them to sell off vWorkspace to VMware (who should have bought it in the first place), I don’t think it is going anywhere and will be just another option on the menu.
- HP will need a coup d’état of the board to get them back on track, otherwise I agree with some others that they won’t be around in 12 months. Could be a play for Ballmer & company to own the entire stack and have a more even play against Oracle.
- A major data breach in a MDM solution will drive the major players to push more sandboxing solutions for BYOD offerings.
- Has there ever really been a year for VDI, I mean, really?
There you have it, our 2013 Virtualization and Cloud Computing Predictions.